2026-10-08 - The Long Hill Report - Guest Mike Carnevale

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1:00opinions are those of Michael Carnival

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1:07[music] of opinion are as of this date

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1:13Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen and

1:15welcome to the Longill Report

1:18Conversations with I am your host

1:21Richard Morco are always our guest Mike

1:25Carvalo and we will be discussing where

1:29things are going in this world

1:31economically and a few other aspects.

1:35By the time you hear us again,

1:38I believe we will have had or it would

1:41have been very close to the midterms.

1:44and um what to inspect in.

1:48Last year we had or two years ago we had

1:51Nadia Miller on who was running for um

1:56uh congresswoman

1:59in our district

2:01and she [clears throat] is running again

2:05Richie Neil, the eternal Richie Neil who

2:09uh oh I don't know why he keeps running.

2:12I mean, but he keeps running.

2:15Anyway,

2:17um I've had some thoughts about that.

2:19Now, I I liked Nadia.

2:23I thought, uh I don't agree with

2:25everything she said, but I thought she

2:27was miles ahead of Richie Neil, which in

2:32the great foot race of life isn't that

2:34difficult. But, um I've had some

2:38thoughts about it. I I will vote for

2:40her.

2:41But across the country,

2:44the rep the Democrats

2:47figure to to win big, and I think they

2:50probably will because I mean, they

2:53didn't start a war, but they have not

2:56really opposed one, right? And that's

3:00the thing. This is a horribly stupid

3:03war. Uh the war and and they

3:10W walk waddle around it, but every

3:13anything any money they'll vote for it.

3:17The Ukraine, they've always supported

3:20the Ukraine war. What's the point?

3:24So, is there a reason to vote for them?

3:27I don't know if I mentioned what

3:29happened to in the last our last edition

3:32if we if I mentioned what happened in

3:34Ireland.

3:35>> No.

3:37uh they had a presidential election,

3:38>> okay?

3:39>> And they had three people, three non-

3:42entities running because that's what

3:44they have, you know,

3:45>> uh that they haven't had a really

3:48important president since probably the

3:511950s.

3:52>> Okay.

3:54>> And um these are people in hawk to uh

3:59the European Union.

4:02>> And so the voters said, "You know what?

4:05What's the point? So, they had a

4:08campaign spoil the vote.

4:10>> Oh, really?

4:11>> So, in Ireland, if if you if you get a

4:14ballot

4:16and you write on it uh instead of

4:18putting in a candidate, you write on it

4:21yada or any other little catchphrase.

4:24Yeah.

4:24>> And you turn it in, it's counted in the

4:26ballots.

4:27>> Oh, really?

4:28>> Over 20% Well over 20% spoiled the

4:32ballot.

4:33>> Really?

4:33>> And they got a lot of No. What's going

4:35on here? Don't don't people approve of

4:38uh our golden people?

4:40>> Mhm.

4:41>> Well, a lot of people deferred against

4:43it.

4:46Why are people voting either? You know,

4:48I can understand why people aren't

4:50voting for the Republicans.

4:51>> They're behind this war.

4:54But why are they behind the Democrats?

4:58>> Oh, I don't know if they are. I think

4:59it's just that well, there's nobody else

5:00to vote for. And

5:01>> that's the point.

5:02>> Yeah.

5:03>> And that's the point. If we had a

5:05situation where people in this country

5:09could cast ballots that said we're for

5:12neither of them,

5:14somebody might say, "Hey, you know,

5:15something's going on here."

5:17>> Can I leave now because I got one right

5:19answer.

5:22>> I don't want to push my luck.

5:23>> You probably won't. [laughter]

5:25And we don't want you to push your luck.

5:27So, you don't have to say anything at

5:29all for the rest of

5:30>> Nothing. Silence from now on. [laughter]

5:32and and

5:33>> but no, you're right.

5:36>> What's the point of voting for either

5:38side?

5:39>> So, I will vote for Nadia if she were

5:42not running. What could I do? I you

5:45know, you can write it yourself, I

5:46guess. And

5:47>> or just leave it blank.

5:48>> No, that won't count. That will if if

5:50they if you leave it back, that won't

5:53even count it.

5:53>> Well, it'll show up as uh blank balance.

5:56>> I tried to find that out. I I'm not

5:59sure. But uh it's a pity because I mean

6:03this is a a pitiful system.

6:08It's Yeah. I mean

6:12it's what's

6:15attracting.

6:17It's the candidates we're attracting.

6:20Well,

6:24Alexis Dtoqueville, greatest writer on

6:26American democracy ever in the 19th

6:29century. You don't get really, really

6:33smart people running in America.

6:37Okay, let's take some people who are

6:39brilliant people like Steve Jobs built a

6:42big

6:42>> right

6:43>> Warren Buffett Buffett Buffet whatever

6:46you want to call Warren Buffett

6:48>> built a huge

6:50um financial engine or stock engine.

6:55Does anybody think that um say either of

7:01the Bushes

7:03uh Obama or any of the other people were

7:07or certainly Biden were anywhere near

7:11the league of say a Buffett or or a

7:14Jobs?

7:15No,

7:17you got another thing right.

7:20And I said I wasn't. Now I'm going to

7:21push my luck. I'm going to keep talking

7:23now. I might miss.

7:24>> Ladies and gentlemen, thanks for coming.

7:26We

7:27>> I might be on a streak here. No, I mean,

7:29but I think a lot of the those people

7:31are technology

7:35sector people.

7:36>> Well, that Well, see, that was to's

7:38point. They can do much much better.

7:40They're they're smarter. They're genius.

7:44A lot of them they can become rich and

7:48powerful by doing something,

7:50>> right? and um the the the Richie Deals

7:55the uh

7:58all the others uh

8:01they just you know well I don't think I

8:04I don't I don't think there's anything

8:09wrong with those people but

8:12they've

8:14they've spent too much time. In other

8:16words, they haven't come in had some

8:18ideas come in whether they were good

8:20ideas or not or worked or didn't and

8:22then leave. It's that they get in and

8:24then they don't want to leave.

8:25>> That's a big thing of it. I mean, but I

8:28don't think that any of them have done

8:29even if the first five years that our

8:32first well two two year terms say their

8:34first six years, yeah, probably they

8:36should leave, but I haven't seen any of

8:38them done do anything genius.

8:41>> Well, I think they've all gotten

8:42progressively worse and worse.

8:44>> Yeah. Uh but I I think you find that

8:47with in a lot of sectors where somebody

8:50has been in the same position for

8:53decades, they do tend to lighten up as

8:55they

8:57you know go on in in in years of term.

9:01>> All right. Take take a take Okay. Take

9:04Jobs started

9:07>> Apple.

9:08>> Yeah.

9:08>> Kind of lost it,

9:09>> right?

9:10>> Got it back,

9:11>> right?

9:11>> Got I think he was smart to begin with.

9:13>> Mhm. Yeah.

9:14>> And I would ever be at that age than

9:16what he said.

9:16>> No, I hear you.

9:17>> Uh but I think he also learned a lot.

9:20>> Yep.

9:21>> And I think Buffett probably

9:23progressively learned a lot.

9:26>> Like you his his big investment was

9:29Coke,

9:29>> right?

9:30>> Yeah.

9:30>> American Express.

9:32>> Oh, Geico was the real one that did

9:34>> Geico big. Yeah. That

9:36>> that's the one that did it.

9:37>> Yeah. So, and this is sharp sharp land.

9:41Yeah. And then there are other people

9:43who've tried to follow in his steps that

9:47have not been able to do it.

9:48>> Yeah.

9:49>> And they and they didn't run for office

9:51though.

9:51>> Right.

9:52>> Right. know

9:55it's

9:58the the government is real is a really I

10:02mean with a war like we have which could

10:04turn nuclear

10:06>> um

10:08>> I think a lot of people you know vote

10:11against somebody rather than really

10:12force someone

10:14>> you know I've had some discussions about

10:16between Nadia about uh Neil and I've had

10:20people saying the man's god

10:24I mean,

10:26>> in the Richie Neil as a man is a god,

10:31I'm an atheist.

10:33>> Uhhuh.

10:34>> I'm not an atheist, but in his case, I'm

10:37an atheist.

10:38>> I don't really know anything about him

10:39because he's not in my district. So,

10:41>> Oh, I I He's not in

10:43>> No, we have uh McGovern.

10:45>> Oh, well, there's a there's a saint who

10:48deserves Kenny Kennedy. I don't really

10:50know anything about

10:52Neil other than like you said every two

10:55years you see his his uh acceptance

10:58speech on TV but other than that I I I

11:01don't know from the like a a dayto-day

11:03or monthtomonth or what he does or

11:05>> can you can you uh remember anything uh

11:09profound about his acceptance or his

11:12victory speeches or no

11:15anything profound?

11:17No, but

11:20>> well, I can't compare the two because I

11:21don't know the other one.

11:22>> Oh, I'm not comparing those. I'm just

11:23saying I mean

11:26>> my district is Neil. Your district is

11:29McGovern. And I um I did meet McGover I

11:33mean Neil about it when he first got

11:37elected.

11:37>> Mhm.

11:38>> And the welming was under.

11:41>> Okay.

11:42>> Uh so you know it's it's what you get.

11:45>> Yeah. I mean, I've met a few people over

11:48the years and in person they're they're

11:52pretty good. I don't know whether it's

11:54once they get to Washington or Boston or

11:59wherever,

12:02they somehow change a bit. But I don't

12:04think any of these are really bad

12:06people. It's just that

12:09I I don't know. I can't

12:11I don't know. But they're different.

12:15Yeah.

12:16>> Yeah.

12:17>> Uh I don't think anybody Well, who who

12:20say you know if you wake up in the

12:22morning and say I'm going to be the b

12:24most vicious person I can be. I don't

12:27think even

12:27>> no

12:28>> even even they but they kind of they'll

12:31go along.

12:32>> Oh I don't know if it's I don't know if

12:34it's with has to do with the fundraising

12:36the money the lobbying. I don't know but

12:39it's something.

12:43Well,

12:46I do remember when when uh

12:49who's a guy was running, he tried to run

12:52for president. Um [snorts] I'm so and so

12:54and I'm reporting for duty.

12:57I he was our senator and he ran for

13:00president.

13:01>> Uh Carrie

13:02>> Kerry I remember I was

13:05>> right again.

13:06>> Oh my god. The pacemaker.

13:09>> I bet you it snows tonight. [laughter]

13:12Don't push along. Anyway, I was part of

13:16an organization. It was a little

13:19in the in the scheme of things, new

13:22scheme of things, it was a little little

13:23tray, but he agreed to meet with us.

13:26>> Okay.

13:26>> But we we couldn't actually say he was

13:30me. It had to sort of be kind of secret.

13:32>> Mhm. Um and uh so we had a a we had we

13:36met with him for a while and we finally

13:40said, "Okay, when you get if you get to

13:41Washington, he's the senator."

13:43>> Mhm.

13:43>> Would you join the organization that

13:46supports what we support?

13:48>> I promise you I will.

13:50>> So he leaves. We all stand up. He

13:53leaves. Everybody turns to each other

13:56and said, "We were just lied to."

13:58>> Right.

13:58>> We were.

13:59>> Yeah.

14:00>> I think a lot of that

14:03you know, gets repeated, right? I think

14:05it it's but I

14:09>> it's all driven by money and special

14:12interests and

14:12>> Oh, yeah.

14:14>> You know, your group wasn't powerful

14:16enough.

14:18>> We were powerful enough to get a

14:20meeting,

14:20>> right?

14:21>> And we were powerful enough to be lied

14:23to,

14:23>> right?

14:24>> But we were not powerful enough that he

14:26would follow through.

14:27>> Yeah.

14:28>> So, it was a lesson in power in its own

14:30right.

14:30>> Yeah.

14:32All right.

14:33>> I think that's Yeah. I mean, I think but

14:35I don't think it's going to change.

14:40>> To me, it is that's no faith, ladies and

14:43gentlemen. I've tried. I've tried.

14:46[laughter]

14:48>> All right. Now, we're getting two

14:52results here.

14:53>> Well, I don't know if we want to, but

14:55we'll we I guess we got to do it

14:56anyways, right?

14:58>> It's a tough dirty job. Somebody's got

15:00to do it. September, you know,

15:03historically is the worst month.

15:06It lived up to expectations

15:08this year. Uh Dow fell over 2200 points,

15:13but that's like almost 4 and a.5% down

15:17in a month after so many months of

15:20either positive returns or, you know,

15:24not much up or down. So, it really felt

15:27like September was like a really bad

15:31month.

15:33Um, there were no new all-time closing

15:35highs during the month and the Dow went

15:39under 51,000. You know, it peaked in

15:42August at like 54,000

15:45and something. So, you know, closed the

15:49month under 51,000. So in four weeks it

15:53dropped, you know, from uh the high

15:57point to the low point, you know,

16:00thousands of points.

16:01>> So two past two were positive. This one,

16:06>> this one was a really bad month.

16:08>> Yeah.

16:08>> Okay. Um and that being my birth month,

16:12I'm kind of disappointed in that.

16:15>> What can you do?

16:18Uh, you can't go back in time and change

16:20your birth month.

16:21>> I had no I had no intention of doing

16:24that.

16:24>> Okay.

16:25>> Uh, if only because I can't.

16:27>> Well, why would one want to? I mean,

16:29does the birth month have anything to

16:31Oh, let's go on.

16:33>> Uh, everything has something to do with

16:36everything. You can you can you know

16:39what do they say in economics? You can

16:42prove whatever you want to prove.

16:44Well, I I I think I told you about the

16:48famous um

16:50economic folk tale about how one of the

16:53the government decided we're going to

16:55get to the bottom of what what's

16:57happening in the economy.

16:59So, they called out called every

17:01economist they could get to come in and

17:05and

17:07this is probably a long time ago. They

17:10they question him and question question

17:13and finally an old southern senator says

17:15to the last one, "Sir, we brought you

17:18all in here and you all disagree.

17:23Do you have anyone

17:25that you people agree knows what they're

17:29talking about?"

17:31And the say, "Oh, well, there's two of

17:33them. There's a fellow with the Bank of

17:35England in London and somebody with

17:38Rothschilds in Paris and we we tend to

17:40think they know what they're talking

17:41about. Father sir, we got two people

17:44agree two people who who know what

17:47they're talking about. What do they say?

17:50Fellow looked serious and said they

17:53disagree.

17:55Yeah, we're tomorrow, ladies and

17:58gentlemen, the stock market will be

18:00either up or down. Okay.

18:03>> And there's an odd chance that it could

18:04do nothing.

18:06>> Whoa.

18:08>> Okay. So, um, September was not good.

18:11>> No.

18:12>> So, we also ended the third quarter, the

18:14end of September. That was not good

18:15either. It was down roughly 3%.

18:18But we had a great first six months and

18:21that still carried us through the end of

18:23September positive. Uh, so year to date

18:26after three quarters, uh, Dow's up 6%.

18:29the other indexes are up a lot more, but

18:32um the Dow itself is up six six percent.

18:34So, it's been a good year. Just hasn't

18:38felt that way in the last, you know,

18:39four or five weeks.

18:42>> Feeling.

18:43>> Yes.

18:45>> Okay. Well, we feel we we have another

18:47quarter left,

18:49>> correct?

18:49>> To think about

18:50>> usually the fourth quarter is a good

18:52quarter.

18:53>> Yeah. What's your little

18:56>> selling May?

18:58>> Sell in May. Uh, come back Halloween

19:00day.

19:01>> Halloween day.

19:02>> Looks like it's working out this year.

19:05Third quarter. So far down 3%.

19:09As long as nothing goes nuts in the next

19:12three or four weeks. Yeah, that that

19:14that

19:17uh item will work out again this year.

19:21>> Okay.

19:25uh interest rates they've gone up not

19:28only because the Fed raised rates but

19:30because

19:32rates in the market have gone up.

19:36>> Yeah.

19:37And that seems now to be

19:42like a problem. Like they've gone up too

19:44much now. You know, the 30-year ended

19:48September at 5.3%.

19:53Now it's almost 5.7%.

19:56>> Could

19:58you're saying rates are going up

20:00generally?

20:00>> Mhm.

20:01>> Could the Fed have resisted that or

20:04would that

20:04>> I think that that would have made it

20:06worse.

20:07>> Okay. So So this is kind of a natural

20:09thing.

20:10>> Well, couple things have come out in the

20:13last three or four days. One was uh the

20:17New York Federal Reserve put out a

20:20report saying that this rise in interest

20:23rates is tied to the tariffs

20:26and to the uh war in Iran.

20:30That without those two

20:33inflation would be around 1%.

20:37>> Uh

20:40>> you always got to have something to

20:41blame something on.

20:42>> Yeah. Ah,

20:43>> and then [snorts] the International

20:44Monetary Fund came out and said that

20:49inflation is and interest rates have

20:51gotten out of hand and that countries

20:53are going to central banks and others

20:54are going to have to do something

20:57drastic, meaning really raise rates to

21:00prevent this thing from really,

21:03you know, going faster in the wrong

21:06direction. something somewhere I saw a

21:08headline saying that uh the Fed

21:10governors are agreeing that it's

21:13probably going to raise rates again this

21:14in September

21:16>> uh in October when they meet yes this

21:18month uh yeah I mean it's oh it depends

21:21on what day you look at the futures

21:23markets some some days they're

21:24definitely going to raise other days

21:26absolutely not but

21:29next week the middle of each month you

21:31have the latest inflation number come

21:33out that's probably going to determine

21:34what they do at the next meeting at the

21:37end of this month.

21:39>> Keep checking gas, buddy

21:41>> and home heating oil.

21:44>> Ah, okay. Yeah, we we'll do that.

21:48>> Mhm.

21:51>> Yep. And that's going to, you know,

21:54especially around here. I mean, that's

21:57going to really hurt people, right?

21:58because you you got gasoline everyone

22:01uses home heating oil a lot of people

22:03use food prices uh people got to eat

22:08that's like how do people

22:12get through all that I'm going to give

22:14you a little quote you can quote me on

22:16this

22:17and I'm not profound but does not diesel

22:21drive everything

22:22>> yeah you call you send Amazon that

22:27little wagon comes It's diesel,

22:29>> right?

22:30>> Uh and all the trucks across the

22:32country.

22:32>> Yeah.

22:33>> Diesel.

22:34>> Mhm.

22:35>> What's the diesel situation?

22:39>> It's at all time highs, right? I don't

22:40know over $6 a gallon now.

22:44>> Well, okay. Um I had uh I've been

22:48investigating alternatives because I

22:51don't think he uh propane,

22:55which we heat with, is going down. I'm

22:58you know this is wicked shaka.

23:00>> Okay.

23:00>> I don't think it's going down.

23:02>> Okay.

23:03>> Um so I looked into the there is a a

23:06system you can do

23:08um uh geothermal.

23:11>> Okay. Yeah.

23:12>> And that would do if I put that in

23:15that would do

23:18you I would heat my house with that and

23:20>> it wouldn't cost but to get it

23:23ends up could be closer to $80,000.

23:27Okay.

23:28>> Now, uh, that does cause a hot to to

23:34fibrillate. I don't know if that's

23:35really the word, but when I when I saw

23:37that, I said,

23:39>> "Okay, but what's the alternative?" Oh,

23:42$80,000.

23:45If if

23:47it depends on the multiple of increase

23:51in propane,

23:52>> right?

23:52>> If it goes down, well, that's the

23:54stupidest thing you could ever do.

23:56>> Correct. But if it really really really

23:58really were able were to go up, say like

24:01I I heard somebody say, "Oh, it could go

24:03up to two oil or patrol 200 or it could

24:07so say it it goes to 200." Say it goes

24:10to 400.

24:11>> That's a a great deal.

24:13>> Mhm.

24:14>> Needless to say, I didn't sign on the

24:16dotted line.

24:17>> Yeah. Um,

24:19and I may regret it in a a year or two,

24:22but you just, you know, I don't find a

24:24lot of money walk I walk along the

24:26streets.

24:27>> Right. Right. Right. Yeah. I don't think

24:31heating oil, which is what I use, is

24:34going back to $3.69

24:38where it was last year.

24:39>> Yeah.

24:40>> Maybe it goes to low fours, but it's

24:43never going back to where it was. And

24:46the risk of course is it could go a lot

24:49higher.

24:53But there's a lot of people who you know

24:57you know you hear the story you know

24:58most people cannot afford to pay a

25:02um a surprise bill. Well that's your

25:05energy bill. Now

25:08>> what do they do?

25:11You watching two people, Mike and

25:13Richard, who know what the problem is,

25:16but do not know what the answer is.

25:19>> No, I mean, you know, I think I think a

25:22lot of it is tied to,

25:25you know,

25:27Russia, Ukraine, US, Iran, Israel, like

25:32>> you you think Yeah. You think over where

25:34the oil where a lot of oil comes from.

25:36>> It's not only that. It's like the

25:38fertilizer.

25:40>> Yeah. this to to make food in this

25:42country comes from there.

25:44>> Yeah. And

25:46you know, we probably

25:49got in over our head

25:53and now there's there's really

25:56>> It's not even probably. We're in over

25:59our freaking heads.

26:00>> Yeah. Oh, yeah.

26:01>> Okay.

26:01>> Yeah. And uh

26:02>> you you're so cautious, Michael. Well, I

26:05am I'm not optimistic it's going to end

26:09anytime soon. That there there's there's

26:12no reason for it to end.

26:14>> Which is back to my why don't even vote

26:17folks. That's you know

26:18>> Yeah.

26:19>> Yeah. Your your candidates are jokes.

26:21They don't have a clue.

26:23>> Yeah. There's been no opposition and

26:25>> and we're we're behind on them. We got

26:27to move out here on the technicals.

26:30>> Yeah. The the technicals improved a

26:32little bit. still not great. You know,

26:34the best rate of those composite rating

26:37of those four indicators, the moving

26:39average, the volatility index, the

26:41oscillator, and the uh fear and greed

26:44index, you know, the best they can be is

26:45plus five. The worst they can be is

26:47negative -2. Um they're at zero right

26:49now. So, they're right in the middle. Uh

26:52that's not great after a big loss in the

26:56market

26:57in September. you know, we improved from

27:00-2 to zero, but that's not much of an

27:03improvement for the size of loss that we

27:05had in the market. So,

27:06>> if we could go if we could go to

27:09different if it had a different number

27:10system just could be, but um it's like

27:16there's really nothing out there that's

27:18going to say this is going to correct

27:20itself

27:22quickly. And I think it's it's all tied

27:25to to inflation and interest rates and

27:29>> well which goes down to major news.

27:31>> Correct.

27:32>> Fed hiked by uh 25 basis points to four.

27:36I'm not saying that as a 4% is not a

27:40huge

27:40>> no

27:42>> no. Um

27:44and they're likely to raise rates again.

27:47Walsh had his third press conference and

27:48the third time the market did not like

27:50what what what he said. didn't go down

27:52as much as the prior two times, but as

27:55he was talking, the market went down 500

27:57points. So, that tells you that, you

28:00know, the the people in the no

28:04uh didn't like what they what he said.

28:07And interest rates around the world are

28:08are now increasing, right? European

28:10Central Bank, Japan,

28:13um Canada and England did not do it. But

28:17you know the trend is higher interest

28:19rates

28:21and we celebrated the

28:2425th anniversary of 9/11

28:27>> is the word celebrate. Well, that's what

28:29it's funny cuz that's what

28:30>> observed maybe.

28:32>> Well,

28:34one paper which I won't name used the

28:37term celebrate.

28:40You would have probably choose a

28:41different word. I would maybe just said

28:44the 25th anniversary of but anyways the

28:47stock market if we recall that time was

28:49closed for six days. That was the

28:51longest closure since the Great

28:52Depression

28:54and people panicked, right? They wanted

28:57to get out of the market and whatnot.

28:59Well, had you stayed there,

29:03the market has since day has returned

29:0512% annualized.

29:08So we can

29:09>> and I'm not going to say what I usually

29:11say,

29:13>> right? But so all this stuff,

29:19it's entertainment, but it doesn't

29:21really mean anything because if you stay

29:22in there long term, right? You're going

29:26to get the ups and downs, and there are

29:28more history shows there's more ups than

29:29more downs. Had you put $10,000 in on

29:33911 that when the market reopened and

29:36didn't touch it, didn't add anything

29:38today, you'd have 115,000.

29:41That works out to 12%.

29:42>> And when you did that, Mike

29:44>> Mhm.

29:44>> And when I did that,

29:45>> yeah,

29:46>> what the heck are we doing here? No.

29:48>> Do we have 10,000? That was the that

29:51might have been the problem. But no,

29:52it's like so people get so tied up in

29:55the shortterm dayto-day stuff that

29:58they're never in it long enough to

30:01>> where do we mostly live?

30:03>> Oh, in the present.

30:04>> Yeah. And that's our problem. Yeah,

30:06you're right. It's it's I haven't done

30:09any genius uh activity yet.

30:12>> Yeah.

30:14>> Yeah. Then that's the that's the you

30:17know oil is around 100.

30:19But before we end we do have some good

30:22news.

30:24Uh the Red Sox second year in a row lost

30:28in the wild card to the Yankees.

30:31That's that's good news because last

30:33year when they did

30:35uh the market went up 9.4% 4% from the

30:38day they lost the wild card final wild

30:42card game in 2025 to the time they lost

30:45the final wild card game in 2026.

30:48So, is this a $10,000 event?

30:52>> Uh, not quite, but close enough. 9.4%.

30:57So, that's a good news.

31:00>> Okay. Um, that's that's

31:03>> as somebody who spent his first probably

31:0715 years of life thinking that um Fenway

31:11Park was a cathedral.

31:12>> Yep.

31:13>> Uh that that's not exactly great news.

31:17>> No, but for the market it is.

31:21>> All right.

31:22>> And it took almost half an hour to

31:24finally find some good news.

31:28>> What a pessimistic.

31:29>> And we'll end on even better news. Uh

31:32the Yankees have been eliminated from

31:34>> Hallelujah. So it it can't get any

31:38better than that. We probably should

31:39stop.

31:40>> All right. So, um inflation going

31:44>> it's going in the wrong direction. We

31:46know that leading economic indicators is

31:48getting a better which is a good sign.

31:51Uh and um jobless the labor market not

31:56much changing. I mean very few layoffs.

32:00uh layoffs, weekly layoffs are near are

32:02near a 57-year low

32:07and uh jobs are still being created.

32:11Unemployment is staying relatively low.

32:14So we could be in a the worst case

32:17scenario where

32:20unemployment stays low but inflation

32:22keeps going up.

32:25Uh

32:26>> that is not a good

32:27>> they call that stagflation. Yes, I

32:29remember. I remember stagflation.

32:31>> Yeah, that's that's probably the worst

32:33of anything.

32:35>> Um,

32:36worse than a recession, worse than um

32:40not worse than a depression, but worse

32:42than a recession is stagflation where

32:44you just get ever higher and higher,

32:48you know, the the Great Depression. You

32:50know why they called it a depression?

32:52>> No.

32:53>> Because they thought recession will

32:55sound too bad.

32:56>> Okay.

32:59um that would that spo I I've heard

33:03that.

33:03>> Okay.

33:04>> Um so what's the worst that could

33:08happen? We could find out.

33:10>> Right. But I think the key is you've got

33:12to get interest rates

33:15to start to come down. And the only way

33:17you're going to do that is you're going

33:18to have the Fed's going to have to keep

33:19raising them to

33:22cut off to slow the economy to affect

33:27jobless claims and employment

33:30and unemployment. You're going to need

33:32to see unemployment go up. You're going

33:33to see have to see layoffs increase and

33:35less jobs created to slow down

33:40inflation, which will then allow the Fed

33:43to

33:45stop raising interest rates. And I think

33:48that's a well the M the International

33:50Monetary Fund couple days ago

33:52essentially said that that this is

33:55really at a point now where it's

33:57starting to get out of control and you

33:59could get back to the stagflation

34:01periods which was not good for the stock

34:03market.

34:05We're not I'm I'm not gonna beat this

34:08drum uh too too. Well, maybe I will, but

34:11no. Um

34:14what I think we would be a discussion

34:17for a PhD candidate would be

34:21is um central banking

34:24just a waste. It just always ends up

34:27these cycles that get worse and worse.

34:30>> Yeah. Well, they're always chasing

34:32something.

34:32>> Yeah.

34:33>> Right. With that, ladies and gentlemen,

34:36we've solved all the problems of the

34:38universe and we hope you will be back

34:41here next month. We might have a new

34:44Congress or uh we might have an

34:48improvement

34:50economically or

34:53we might [music] have more war.

34:56We can have whatever we don't want.

35:00>> Correct.

35:02Mike Kov, [music] Richard Morov. See you

35:06again in a month. Thank you very much.

35:09[music]